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The change of manufacturing brings new space for mechanical development.

Time:2018/09/12 16:45:54
Investment advice
According to the future development trend of downstream manufacturing industry and the equipment demand of various sub-industries, we recommend intelligent equipment driven by technological innovation, rail transit equipment driven by capital investment, agricultural machinery, clean energy equipment determined by resource endowment, environmental protection equipment and competitive internationalization machine driven by labor-intensive. Machine manufacturer.
Reason
International comparison shows that the ratio of manufacturing industry to GDP and employment in a country presents an inverted U-shaped structure. Before and after the per capita GDP of $6,300, the ratio of manufacturing industry to GDP and employment reaches a peak of 30% - 40%. At present, China's per capita GDP has reached US$6,000. The proportion of manufacturing industry in GDP and employment has reached the peak of 40% and has stepped into the stage of gradual decline.
According to the characteristics of 31 kinds of manufacturing sub-industries, we divide the manufacturing industry into labor-intensive, resource endowment-determining, capital input-pulling and technological innovation-driving. Comparing with the development history of Japan and the United States in the past 30 years and the current structure analysis, we believe that China is now in the stage of labor-intensive gradual withdrawal and resource endowment demand decline. The stability of capital input and the rise of technological innovation will be the key to the future growth of the entire manufacturing industry.
With the above trend in mind, corresponding to the equipment needs of various sub sectors, we:
1) Looking forward to upgrading opportunities for manufacturing driven by technological innovation, including robotics, Gold Card, Evergreen and other intelligent equipment enterprises;
2) Recommend investment-driven rail transit equipment and agricultural machinery industries, including China South Railway, China North Railway, Xinyan and Jianghuai Power;
3) Focus on energy conservation and environmental protection, unconventional oil and gas exploitation, CNG / LNG and other industrial chains determined by resource endowment, including Jerry Shares, Zhongji Anrike (H);
4) Optimizing competitive "international leaders" under labor-intensive advantages, such as superstar technology; earnings forecast and valuation
At present, the average price-earnings ratio of the machinery industry in 2013/14 is 23.3x and 15.2x. Looking ahead, we believe that cyclical sub-industries are expected to achieve marginal improvement under a low base, and the machinery industry as a whole will continue the pattern of "emerging prosperity, traditional stability".
risk
Industry demand declined, policy support was lower than expected, and overseas economic fluctuations affected exports.
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